Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BCH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-23 0.004789 0.005046 0.005311 0.005606 0.005923 0.006257 0.006635
2025-11-30 0.004290 0.004659 0.005057 0.005518 0.006041 0.006619 0.007309
2025-12-07 0.003977 0.004405 0.004879 0.005447 0.006114 0.006877 0.007826
2025-12-14 0.003771 0.004244 0.004780 0.005438 0.006231 0.007169 0.008375
2025-12-21 0.003515 0.004003 0.004566 0.005270 0.006138 0.007189 0.008579
2025-12-28 0.003392 0.003908 0.004513 0.005285 0.006259 0.007466 0.009111
2026-01-04 0.003307 0.003852 0.004501 0.005344 0.006430 0.007810 0.009744
2026-01-11 0.003186 0.003744 0.004418 0.005306 0.006471 0.007982 0.010152
2026-01-18 0.003090 0.003661 0.004360 0.005296 0.006543 0.008193 0.010623
2026-01-25 0.002987 0.003566 0.004282 0.005252 0.006565 0.008335 0.010998
2026-02-01 0.002955 0.003557 0.004312 0.005350 0.006781 0.008751 0.011797
2026-02-08 0.002872 0.003480 0.004249 0.005320 0.006817 0.008913 0.012224
2026-02-15 0.002802 0.003419 0.004206 0.005315 0.006889 0.009133 0.012760
2026-02-22 0.002708 0.003321 0.004111 0.005236 0.006851 0.009186 0.013037
2026-03-01 0.002624 0.003236 0.004030 0.005170 0.006828 0.009261 0.013350
2026-03-08 0.002567 0.003184 0.003990 0.005161 0.006885 0.009458 0.013875
2026-03-15 0.002460 0.003061 0.003851 0.005005 0.006718 0.009297 0.013785
2026-03-22 0.002419 0.003026 0.003832 0.005020 0.006805 0.009538 0.014400
2026-03-29 0.002395 0.003013 0.003841 0.005075 0.006955 0.009887 0.015228
2026-04-05 0.002341 0.002958 0.003789 0.005039 0.006964 0.010005 0.015651
2026-04-12 0.002298 0.002917 0.003757 0.005030 0.007012 0.010188 0.016205
2026-04-19 0.002248 0.002864 0.003704 0.004989 0.007008 0.010283 0.016599
2026-04-26 0.002241 0.002871 0.003739 0.005080 0.007218 0.010754 0.017759